Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics

EDUARDO S MORENO, ILARIA AGOSTINI, INGRID HOLZMANN, MARIO S DI BITETTI, LUCIANA I OKLANDER, MARTÍN M KOWALEWSKI, PABLO M BELDOMENICO, SILVINA GOENAGA, MARIELA MARTÍNEZ, EDUARDO LESTANI, ARNAUD LJ DESBIEZ, PHILIP MILLER

MEMóRIAS DO INSTITUTO OSWALDO CRUZ.

FUNDACO OSWALDO CRUZ

Lugar: Rio de Janeiro; Año: 2015 p. 865 - 876

0074-0276

In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of itstraditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurredin Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp)were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public healthpolicies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to applymodelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouattaguariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluatebrown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulationmodel, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiologypredicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approachdiscussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can beuseful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.