INVESTIGADORES
VIRAMONTE Jose German
artículos
Título:
Volcanic Ash Forecast- Application to the May 2008 Chaitén Eruption
Autor/es:
FOLCH, A.; JORBA ,O.; VIRAMONTE J.G.
Revista:
Natural Hazard and Earth System Sciences
Editorial:
Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.
Referencias:
Año: 2008 vol. 8 p. 927 - 940
Resumen:
Abstract. We model the transport and subsequent deposition
of ash from Chait´en volcano, Chile, during the first week of
May 2008. The simulation couples theWeather Research and
Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model with the FALL3D
dispersion model. We only use semi-quantitative volcanological
inputs based on the first eruption reports. We consider
two different run types based on forecasted and hindcasted
meteorological conditions. The first simulation type can be
regarded as a syn-eruptive operational forecast for the 2
8 May period. We predict the evolution of the ash cloud
position, the concentration of ash on air, the expected deposit
thickness, and the ash accumulation rates at different
localities. The comparison of model results with observed
cloud arrival times and satellite images shows the goodness
of the combined WRF+FALL3D forecast system and points
out the feasibility of combining these two models for shortterm
forecast of volcanic clouds and ash fallout.We model the transport and subsequent deposition
of ash from Chait´en volcano, Chile, during the first week of
May 2008. The simulation couples theWeather Research and
Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model with the FALL3D
dispersion model. We only use semi-quantitative volcanological
inputs based on the first eruption reports. We consider
two different run types based on forecasted and hindcasted
meteorological conditions. The first simulation type can be
regarded as a syn-eruptive operational forecast for the 2
8 May period. We predict the evolution of the ash cloud
position, the concentration of ash on air, the expected deposit
thickness, and the ash accumulation rates at different
localities. The comparison of model results with observed
cloud arrival times and satellite images shows the goodness
of the combined WRF+FALL3D forecast system and points
out the feasibility of combining these two models for shortterm
forecast of volcanic clouds and ash fallout.