Yellow fever impact in brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina ? a metamodeling approach using Population Viability Analysis and Epidemiological tools.

MORENO ES; AGOSTINI I; HOLZMANN I; DI BITETTI M; OKLANDER LI; KOWALEWSKI MM; BELDOMENICO PM; GONEAGA S; MARTINEZ M; LESTANI E; DESBIEZ A; MILLER P

MEMóRIAS DO INSTITUTO OSWALDO CRUZ.

FUNDACO OSWALDO CRUZ

Lugar: Rio de Janeiro; Año: 2015 vol. 110 p. 865 - 876

0074-0276

In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and non-human primate populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007 and 2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp.) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World non-human primates, our main goal was to apply modeling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) population in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modeling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model; and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modeling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.