INVESTIGADORES
CASTRO Rodrigo Daniel
artículos
Título:
Arguments on the Imminence of Global Collapse Are Premature when Based on Simulation Models
Autor/es:
CASTRO, RODRIGO
Revista:
GAIA (HEIDELBERG)
Editorial:
OEKOM VERLAG
Referencias:
Lugar: Munich; Año: 2012 vol. 21 p. 271 - 273
ISSN:
0940-5550
Resumen:
On the occasion of the 40th anniversary of the publication ofthe famous book The Limits to Growth (LtG)(Meadows et al.1972), Graham M. Turner (2012) published an article in this journal.He claimed that the data review of said book ?continues toconfirm that the standard run scenario represents real-world outcomesconsiderably well. This scenario results in a collapse of theglobal economy and population in the near future? (Turner 2012,p. 123).I will argue on mathematical grounds that several of Turner?skey arguments are premature.The mathematical gap in his argu -ments stems from an incomplete sensitivity analysis of the standardrun scenario(Std Run) of Meadows?World3 model. This factimposes methodological limits on the interpretation of comparisonsbetween recently updated historical data and simulationresults.
