Volcanic Ash Forecast during the June 2011 Cordon Caulle eruption.

ESTELA COLLINI; SOLEDAD OSOSES; ARNAU FOLCH; JOSE G. VIRAMONTE; GUSTAVO VILLAROSA; GRACIELA SALMUNI

NATURAL HAZARDS (DORDRECHT)

SPRINGER

Lugar: Berlin; Año: 2013 vol. 66 p. 389 - 412

0921-030X

Abstract We modelled the transport and deposition of ash from the June 2011 eruptionfrom Cordo´n Caulle volcanic complex, Chile. The modelling strategy, currently underdevelopment at the Argentinean Naval Hydrographic Service and National MeteorologicalService, couples the weather research and forecasting (WRF/ARW) meteorological modelwith the FALL3D ash dispersal model. The strategy uses volcanological inputs inferredfrom satellite imagery, eruption reports and preliminary grain-size data obtained during thefirst days of the eruption from an Argentinean ash sample collection network. In this sense,the results shown here can be regarded as a quasi-syn-eruptive forecast for the first 16 daysof the eruption. Although this article describes the modelling process in the aftermath ofthe crisis, the strategy was implemented from the beginning of the eruption, and resultswere made available to the Buenos Aires Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers and other endusers. The model predicts ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flightlevels, expected deposit thickness and ash accumulation rates at relevant localities. Here,we validate the modelling strategy by comparing results with satellite retrievals and syneruptiveground deposit measurements. Results highlight the goodness of the combinedWRF/ARW-FALL3D forecasting system and point out the usefulness of coupling bothmodels for short-term forecast of volcanic ash clouds.