INVESTIGADORES
SILVESTRI Gabriel Emilio
artículos
Título:
Climate change scenarios for seasonal precipitation in South America from IPCC-AR4 models
Autor/es:
C. VERA; G. SILVESTRI; B. LIEBMANN; P. GONZÁLEZ
Revista:
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Editorial:
American Geophysical Union
Referencias:
Año: 2006 p. 1 - 4
ISSN:
0094-8276
Resumen:
A subset of climate simulations of the 20th century
from the IPCC-AR4 is analyzed to assess the ability of these
models to reproduce the observed climatological seasonal
precipitation in South America during the period 1970
1999. Changes of the model climatology in a climate
change scenario (SRESA1b) for the period 20702099 are
also discussed. Results show that models are able to
reproduce the main features of the precipitation seasonal
cycle over South America, although the precipitation in the
SACZ region and the precipitation maximum over
southeastern South America observed during the cold
season are not well- represented. There is a general
consensus among models that the precipitation changes
projected are mainly: i) an increase of summer precipitation
over southeastern subtropical South America; ii) a reduction
of winter precipitation over most of the continent; and iii)
reduction of precipitation in all seasons along the southern
Andes.