Socioeconomic and environmental conditions influence the risk of dengue infection in a subtropical city of Argentina Las condiciones socioeconómicas y ambientales influyen en el riesgo de infección por dengue en una ciudad subtropical de la Argentina.

COSTAS, DE; BARRENECHEA, GG; SÁNCHEZ, R; FOGUET, J.; PERAL, M; CHAHLA, R; OROSCO, J; ARÁOZ, E.

Ecologia Austral

Asociacion Argentina de Ecologia

Año: 2023 vol. 33 p. 808 - 820

The increasing connectivity and urbanization of human population favor the reemergence andspread of dengue fever in subtropical and temperate regions, which poses onerous challenges to healthsystems. Analyzing the contribution of socioenvironmental conditions to the contagion risk is essential todesign preventive strategies. In this retrospective analysis, we aim to assess the effects of social, demographicand environmental factors on the likelihood of becoming infected with dengue virus in Tucumán, the mainsubtropical city of Argentina. We implemented a case-control study to analyze the 2016 dengue outbreak.The control group included all persons reported with nonspecific febrile syndrome, and the cases were thoseconfirmed with dengue virus after laboratory analyses. We recorded the age, sex and diagnostic date for everypatient, and we georeferenced their house. This georeferentiation allowed us to estimate the distance to thenearest previous positive case (to control autocorrelation), population density, proportion of households withinsufficient material constructive quality, overcrowding, educational level, NDVI, surface temperature anddistance to nearest canal and cemetery. We constructed and compared logistic regression models to identifythe combination of variables that best predicted dengue cases. Proximity to previous cases, cemeteries andcanals, scarcity of surrounding vegetation, age and educational deficit were associated with an increasedprobability of being positive for dengue. In Argentina, socioeconomic differences are reflected in environmentalinequalities, which reinforce the differential odds of suffering from dengue fever. Our results suggest thatimproving urban environmental quality may constitute an efficient way of preventing individual contagionof dengue and subsequent outbreaks.