COVID-19 spreading under containment actions

F. CORNES; G. FRANK; AND C.O.DORSO

PHYSICA A - STATISTICAL AND THEORETICAL PHYSICS

ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

Lugar: Amsterdam; Año: 2022 vol. 588 p. 126566 - 126584

0378-4371

We propose an epidemiological model that explores the effect of human mobility on thespatio-temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak, in the spirit to those consideredin Refs. Barmak et al. (2011, 2016) and Medus and Dorso (2011) [1]. We assume thatpeople move around in a city of 120 × 120 blocks with 300 inhabitants in each block.The mobility pattern is associated to a complex network in which nodes representblocks while the links represent the traveling path of the individuals (see below). Weimplemented three confinement strategies in order to mitigate the disease spreading: (1)global confinement, (2) partial restriction to mobility, and (3) localized confinement. Inthe first case, it was observed that a global isolation policy prevents the massive outbreakof the disease. In the second case, a partial restriction to mobility could lead to a massivecontagion if this was not complemented with sanitary measures such as the use of masksand social distancing. Finally, a local isolation policy was proposed, conditioned to thehealth status of each block. It was observed that this mitigation strategy was able tocontain and even reduce the outbreak of the disease by intervening in specific regionsof the city according to their level of contagion. It was also observed that this strategy iscapable of controlling the epidemic in the case that a certain proportion of those infectedare asymptomatic.