Assessing the Impact of Physical Configurations and Lead Time on WRF Model Performance for Forecasting an Extreme Wind Event

ROCIO OTERO; M SUAREZ; LEANDRO MATURANO; EDGARDO PIEROBON; JUAN SANCHEZ; LUCIA SANDALIO; RODRIGUEZ ANDRES; POFFO DENIS

Journal of Meteorological Research

Springer

Lugar: Beijing; Año: 2024

This article presents an evaluation of WRF model wind forecasts during an extreme 1wind event that occurred in the province of Córdoba, Argentina, in March 2022. Four operational  parameterization schemes (A, B, C, and D), used byOHMCas operational tools for different provincial organizations, were evaluated. Two spatial domains, one of 4 km sides and a nested one with a horizontal resolution of 9-3-1 km, and three runs to study the impact of lead time in the forecast were analyzed. Results show that the WRF model generally performs well when forecasting the peak wind speed intensity and time of occurrence. However, it was observed that the model overestimated wind intensity during most of the event. Scheme A, associated with the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic PBL parameterization, performs better among the analyzed configurations. The wind gust analysis shows that the WRF model tends to underestimate the forecasting of the maximum gust for higher values. The nested WRF model analysis did not result in significant improvements in the forecast of wind compared to the operational WRF model.