MODELING HABITAT SUITABILITY OF THE KENTISH PLOVER (Charadrius alexandrinus) IN MOLISE, ITALY

VILLALOBOS PERNA, PRISCILA; CARRANZA, MARÍA LAURA; INNAGI, M.; FINIZIO, M.; BONGIOVANNI, SILVINA BEATRIZ; ANDINO, NATALIA DEL PILAR; DI FEBRARO, MARCO

San Juan

Congreso; XLI Reunión Científica Anual de la Sociedad de Biología de Cuyo; 2023

Sociedad de Biología de Cuyo

Shorebirds, by virtue of their life history, behavior, migratory, and foraging habits, are important indicators of the integrity of coastal ecosystems. Many shorebirds are facing a global decline driven by habitat degradation and climate change. Comprehensive information on the distribution and breeding ecology of shorebird populations is crucial to understand and mitigate these threats. The Kentish Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus) is a small ground-nesting shorebird that breeds in sandy beaches, but information about the breeding ecology of this species in the Molise region (southern Italy) is highly limited. In this study, our aim was to analyze the relationship between environmental features and breeding habitat preferences of Charadrius alexandrinus, through a breeding habitat suitability modelling in a current and future scenery under climate change pressure. We collected data on Kentish Plover’s nests across the entire Molise coast during several years and, from a coast photo interpretation, the following variables were extracted: Shannon Index; distance to dry sand; distance to the coastline; distance to water bodies; distance to herbaceous, shrub and arboreal vegetation; distance to artificial surfaces; distance to urban green areas; distance to agricultural areas; and distance to beach accesses. These variables were used as predictors to calibrate a species distribution model (SDM) to map the nest occurrence probability, using an ensemble modelling approach with two algorithms: Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) and Maxent. We then generated a binary presence/absence map along the current shoreline and along a future shoreline profile as predicted for 2040 under climate change scenarios. Variables with a relative importance greater than 70% were distance to dry sand; distance to artificial surfaces; distance to the coastline; and distance to herbaceous and arboreal vegetation, indicating that these are key parameters in breeding habitat preferences of the species. Our results also showed that the Kentish Plover will reduce its suitable breeding habitat in the area by more than 20% within the next twenty years. According to our results, we point out that our modelling approach can provide inputs for conservation planning of Kentish Plover in the region. Finally, we believe that conservation of Kentish Plover breeding habitat will not only protect this species but will benefit other species, particularly those sharing similar habitats