Policy by simulation: seeing is believing for interactive model co-creation and effective intervention

CASTRO, RODRIGO; DENIL, JOACHIM; FERET, JEROME; MATKOVIC, KRESIMIR; POPPER, NIKI; SANCHEZ, SUSAN; SLOOT, PETER

Wadern

Seminario; Dagstuhl Seminar Computer Science Methods for Effective and Sustainable Simulation Studies; 2022

Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik

We understand that policy makers are currently much more willing (than they were 10years ago, for example) to participate in simulation-assisted planning and decision-makingprocesses. We must therefore be well prepared so we are able to seize the opportunity.Simulation is particularly useful in decision support when bifurcations can occur, i.e.,when a system under study takes qualitatively different courses depending on the inputparameters or random events as the system dynamics evolve, a distinctive feature of complexsystems. Interventions represent a special example that by definition leads to discrete changesin the dynamics that may not be represented with classical methods alone [13].Two key aspects of policy by simulation are that the systems being addressed are inevitablycomplex (they include overlapping facets such as social, physical, biological, cybernetic, etc.)and also that the interventions being applied in the real world must ultimately and inevitablybe understood and agreed upon by humans.As there are usually several stakeholders from different domains, it is essential to providemeans which will efficiently support specifications of interventions as well as communicationof results which do not rely solely on mathematical-computational models.In this context, dynamic and reactive visualization emerges as a key element for humanunderstanding of interventions in complex systems.