Mathematical models for malaria transmission: climate and immunity

KARINA LANERI

Sao Paulo

Simposio; ICTP-SAIFR ICTP-SAIFR 5th Anniversary Symposium: Advancement of Science in South America; 2016

International Center for Theoretical Physics

p { margin-bottom: 0.1in; line-height: 120%; }Assessingthe influence of climate on the incidence of Plasmodium falciparummalaria worldwide and how it might impact local malaria dynamics iscomplex. Malaria incidence time series exhibit cycles that could berelated to climate forcings, immunity feedbacks or both. In sites ofepidemic malaria transmission, it is widely accepted that climateplays an important role in driving malaria outbreaks. However, littleis known about the role of climate in endemic settings where clinicalimmunity develops early in life. I will show results of a dynamicalmodel fitted to twenty years datasets for two cohorts in Senegal,under similar meteorological conditions but with markedly differentmalaria transmission. A stochastic non-linear human-mosquito modelthat includes rainfall and temperature covariates, drug treatmentperiods and population variability is capable of simulating thecomplete dynamics of reported malaria cases for both villages. Wefound that undermoderate transmission intensity climate is crucial, however underhigh endemicity the development of clinical immunity buffers anyeffect of climate.