Epidemiological models with human mobility based on dengue time series from Northern Argentina

KARINA LANERI; BRUNO KAUFMAN

Buenos Aires

Workshop; Latin American School and Workshop on Data Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of Social Sciences (SoFiA); 2016

CELFI

The space-time patterns of dengue cases from Northern Argentina seem to be closely related with human mobility. Tourism and/or temporal work associated with regional economies generates a flux of immigrationfrom dengue endemic countries that should be considered in epidemiological mathematical models together with intercity mobility. Besides mosquito population that produce dengue transmission changes with climate and water accumulation. I will present a dynamical metapopulation model for dengue inspired on observed cases in severalcities from Salta and Misiones provinces. The model takes into account climate forcing and human mobility at the provincial scale and is used to test the effect of different hypothesis about the sources of imported cases from endemic bordering countries.