Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic: A Multi-Model-Ensemble Study

COLLINS M., BOTZET M., A. F. CARRIL, H. DRANGE, A. JOUZEAU, M. LATIF, S. MASINA, O. H. OTTERAA, H. POHLMANN, A. SORTEBERG, R. SUTTON AND L. TERRAY

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

AMS

Año: 2006 vol. 19 p. 1195 - 1203

0894-8755

Ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere–ocean models to investigate thepotential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are startedfrom similar model-generated initial states, and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find thatvariations in the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are potentially predictable on interannualto decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations inthe MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean are alsopotentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, albeit with potential skill levels that are lessthan those seen for MOC variations. This intercomparison represents a step forward in assessing therobustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a prerequisite for the development of any operationalforecasting system.