D1.2: Locally-adapted Prospective Analysis Techniques to SocialEcological-Systems

DELGADO-SERRANO, MARÍA DEL MAR; VANWILDEMEERSCH, PIETER; ORTIZ, CÉSAR; ESCALANTE SEMERENA, ROBERTO; ROJAS, MARA; NAVARRO CERRILLO, RAFAEL; BERBEL VECINO, JULIO; AMBROSIO, PEPA

2015-08-01/2015-09-14

1-64

Social

Des.Socioecon.y Serv.-Politica y Planif.del

The successful management of environmental challenges depends on several internal and external factors, but the communities that base their livelihood and interact daily with ecosystems can play an important role in sustainable management. However, they often lack skills and locally adapted tools for such management. The local lack of understanding on SES dynamics, their interactions with broader social, economic and institutional settings and the effects of management practices may pose significant barriers to sustainable management. COMET-LA searches to improve this situation through a better understanding of these dynamics, interactions and effects. It is a research project for the benefit of the Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) aiming to identify sustainable governance models for the management of environmental challenges. The COMET-LA project emerges as a result of the collaboration of 11 partners and several local and regional stakeholders. The working method is based on the use of participatory techniques and a learning arena where scientific and local knowledge are shared and integrated. This way, it not only fosters the participation, but also the involvement of the local communities in the project, which leads to a higher level of appropriateness of the outcomes to their needs. The project is developed around 3 Case Studies (CSs) in Colombia, Mexico and Argentina, each one analyzing environmental challenges in specific Social-Ecological Systems (SESs); water and biodiversity management is analyzed in 2 Communitarian Councils of Black Communities in the Colombian Pacific, forest management in a community of the Mexican Sierra of Oaxaca, and marine and coastal areas management in the Argentinean Bahia Blanca Estuary and adjacent coasts. After a comprehensive characterization of the SESs based on 132 variables (see COMET-LA Deliverable 1.1: Locally-adapted tools for the Characterization of Social-Ecological Systems), the second phase of the project have been dedicated to select the most important variables and drivers in the dynamics of the SES. Capturing and condensing the knowledge of SES users on the central environmental challenges they face without omitting its inherent complexity, is a rather difficult but essential step for a common understanding that drives the planning and development of sustainable management options. In addition, it is a necessary step for building future scenarios, which constitutes the last phase of the project. This report summarizes the results of Task 1.2: Adaptation of Prospective Analysis Frameworks to local conditions (included in COMET-LA WP1) and presents the methodological preparations to deliver a locally-adapted framework for identifying the role played by the different variables in the current and potential functioning of the SESs according to the perceptions of the local communities that base their livelihoods on them. The framework proposed by COMET-LA, is based on the second step of the foresight methodology la prospective: Prospective Structural Analysis (PSA) (Godet 1986, 1994, Godet et al. 2004). This technique analyzes the relationships of influence/dependence between the VI | P a g e main variables in a system as perceived by the stakeholders and classifies them. PSA starts by selecting the most relevant variables describing the dynamics of a system and consecutively gathers the direct influences between them. Afterwards it calculates the indirect interrelationships highlighting the invisible structure of interactions among the system?s elements and establishes hierarchies among them. In addition, PSA permits differentiating clusters and nets of interrelated variables and thusly evaluate the role of each element of the system. It shows how the stakeholders see their territory and what they consider to be restrictions, opportunities and potentialities for change; it draws a dynamic image of the perceptions by local actors (Delgado-Serrano et al. 2010). However, PSA has been conceived for use with experts that are generally highly trained and on sectors that possess substantial means (strategic regional or corporate planning) (Bradfield et al. 2005), so the methodology in its original form is not suitable for use at the local level, particularly with local communities. So, when planning to use PSA in SESs and working with local communities, a thorough adaptation to the local level is in order. All the proposed adaptations were conceived and applied in close collaboration with the beneficiary communities within the framework of COMET-LA. This way, the community members not only have the results of the PSA exercise, but also master the techniques and can eventually use and apply them in the future. The adapted PSA method has been tested in the 3 COMET-LA CSs. The diversity of situations and characteristics in them has led to use different approaches for taking into account the local environmental differences and dissimilar complex social interactions and to which finetune the proposed framework to the particularities of each CS. The results of its application can be consulted in deliverable 2.2: Stakeholder vision on problems and drivers related to environmental challenges in Colombia CS; deliverable 3.2: Stakeholder vision on problems and drivers related to environmental challenges in Mexico; and deliverable 4.2: Stakeholder vision on problems and drivers related to environmental challenges in Argentina CS), all of them available at http://comet-la.eu/index.php/en/publications.html. The adaptations proposed for improving the synchrony between the framework used to characterize the SESs, the PSA technique and the local context of community-based natural resource management, are mainly situated in the fields of stakeholder selection, concept translation to lay language, and adapting facilitation techniques and workshop organization to the local level. The methodology thusly has been adapted to the oral and visual cultural dynamics of the local communities. The close collaboration with the community members allowed them not only to have the results of the PSA exercise, but also to understand and be trained in the techniques. The report thus includes a full description of the theoretical basis of la prospective, of the mathematical procedures for applying PSA, as well as practical guidelines for conceiving a PSA exercise well-adapted to the local level. Indeed, tips and hints are given for optimizing participation of local stakeholders by giving the locals a central position, including a maximum of social diversity in the analysis, making the exercise comprehensible for lay-people, and sharing the results with the beneficiaries. Suggestions are made to build the community?s VII | P a g e capacities in SES analysis and key variable identification so they can appropriate and repeat the exercise. Through the group effort during this stage of the project, the basis laid for the creation of a learning arena where stakeholders can share knowledge and negotiate optimal policies for reaching an inclusive, sustainable and profitable management of the SES, is further extended and intensified. The direct outcome of the PSA is a thorough and harmonized knowledge of (the stakeholders? vision on) the most relevant variables in the SES, and more precisely, the role played by these variables in the SES current dynamics and potential future evolution, and on which drivers are considered the most potent in triggering or blocking changes. In addition, the local communities have participated in the adaptations and have been trained in the fundamentals of the techniques and can accordingly use and apply them in the future, with the support of the CSOs and research institutions. This way they own these tools for evaluating the impact of their own actions on their SES, and can monitor and assess the actions of other policy and management levels linked with the key drivers. It gives them active ownership of the knowledge. As a conclusion, it can be stated that with the results of phases 1 and 2, a locally-adapted methodology for characterizing SESs and gaining a deeper understanding on them through the identification of the key drivers and variables and the roles each of them play in the system, is designed. Furthermore, the participatory basis of the methodology guarantees high levels of ownership and locally-rooted results, in combination with a strong integration within the local governance systems. This is a solid step towards sustainable natural resource management, and will be further reinforced during the next step of COMET-LA, Task 1.3: Adaptation of Scenario Building Frameworks to local conditions. Finally, COMET-LA presents an important methodological innovation in the adaptation of prospective tools to identify the drivers in the SESs dynamics and also in the methodological learning to be used and mastered at the local level. The information included in this report can guide and facilitate the process of developing similar analysis in other SESs.