Implications of rural-urban migration for conservation of the Atlantic Forest and urban growth in Misiones, Argentina (1970-2030)

A. E. IZQUIERDO; H. R. GRAU; T. M. AIDE

AMBIO

ROYAL SWEDISH ACAD SCIENCES

Año: 2010 vol. 40

0044-7447

The global trend of increasing rural-urban migration and population urbanization could provide opportunities for nature conservation, particularly in regions where deforestation is driven by subsistence agriculture. We analyzed the role of rural population as a driver of deforestation and its contribution to urban population growth from 1970 to the present in the Atlantic Forest of Argentina, a global conservation priority. We created future scenarios based on human demographic parameters and the relationship between rural population and land-cover change between 1970 and 2006. In 2006 native forest covered 50% of the province, but by 2030 all scenarios predicted a decrease that ranged from 18% to 39% forest cover. Between 1970 and 2001 rural migrants represented 20% of urban population growth, but by 2030 our model predicts that rural migrants will represent less than 10% of urban growth. The future scenarios show how rural-urban migration and land-use planning can improve nature conservation, with little impact on urban areas.