Deliverable D4.5-2 of the Integrated Project Fire Paradox, Project no. FP6-018505, European Commission

MAVSAR, ROBERT; FARRERAS, VERÓNICA; KOVAC, MARKO; JAPELJ, ANZE

2009-03-01/2010-03-08

Socio-económica

Desarrollo socioeconomico y servicios

Written description of the private and social evaluation models. This report provides an overview of the model proposed for the estimation of forest fire induced damages and efficiency of fire management in the frame of the Fire Paradox project. The aim of the model is to estimate the economic damages caused by forest fires and the efficiency of fire management practices. When developing the model, different factors had to be considered, like: (i) applicability- the models should be universally applicable to a wide range of situations and in most European countries; (ii) flexibility- the models should allow the user to select only those attributes (e.g. type of costs) that are of importance in the analysed case; (iii) data availability- the model should enable reliable estimates also in cases where only scarce data is available. For example, immediately after a fire only scarce data about the fire and the extent of damages; nevertheless, already at this stage a first estimate of the damage extent is needed to ensure better planning of further activities. Considering these requirements, it was decided to develop three different models for fire damage assessment and a model for fire management efficiency assessment. The three models differ in complexity, data needs, and precision of damage assessment estimations: (1) Quick assessment model: The quick assessment model is the simplest, and its aim is to provide a first estimate of the possible range of economic damages caused by a forest fire. The lower bound of the provided damage estimate is based on forest replacement costs and the upper range on people’s willingness to pay to protect an additional hectare of a forest. (2) Intermediate assessment model: The intermediate model for forest fire damage assessment provides estimates based on established lists of values for a number of forest goods and services. The goods and services included are timber, non-wood forest products, recreation and carbon sequestration. Compared to the quick assessment model this model provides more details about the possible damages and also allows some more flexibility with regards to the specification of damaged goods and services. However, it is still rather limited in the diversity of damages considered, and also the provided marginal values for forest goods and services are fixed. (3) Detailed assessment model: The detailed assessment model is more precise and flexible as the previous models, so it can be better adjusted to the case specific situation. For example, the user can select all the important damages caused by the forest fire. On the other hand, it requires more input data that has to be provided by the user. Nevertheless, the model also provides a number of predefined price lists for different forest goods and services.