Valuation of climate-change effects on Mediterranean shrublands

RIERA, PERE; PEÑUELAS, JOSEP; FARRERAS, VERÓNICA; ESTIARTE, MARC

ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

ESA Publications

Lugar: Ithaca NY: USA; Año: 2007 vol. 17 p. 91 - 100

1051-0761

In general, the socioeconomic analysis of natural systems does not enter intothe realms of natural science. This paper, however, estimates the human-welfare effects ofpossible physicochemical and biological impacts of climate change on Mediterraneanshrublands over the coming 50 years. The contingent choice method was applied to elicitthe trade-offs in perceived values for three climate-sensitive attributes of shrubland (plantcover, fire risk, and soil erosion) and for the costs of programs designed to mitigate changes.Soil erosion was found to be the attribute of shrubland that most concerned the population,followed by fire risk and then plant cover. An increase of 1% in the shrubland area affected byerosion was estimated to cost each person on average 2.9 euros per year in terms of lostwelfare, a figure that is equivalent in terms of perceptions of social welfare to an increase of0.24% in the shrub area burned annually and a decrease of 3.19% in the area of plant cover.These trade-off values may help ecologists, policy makers, and land managers to take socialpreferences into account.