Impact reduction of COVID19 in AMBA Part 1: model identification & validation.

GARCÍA-VIOLINI, DEMIÁN; MOSCOSO-VÁSQUEZ, MARCELA; RICARDO SANCHEZ PEÑA; FABRICIO GARELLI

Congreso; 27vo. Congreso Argentino de Control Automático (AADECA 2020).; 2020

This work presents the first part of a study focusedon the multilevel control of the population confinement for theAMBA region to mitigate the COVID-19 outbreak. With this aim,the model used throughout this study is known as SEIRD and twoobjectives are sought. Firstly, a time-varying identification of theinfection rate and its relation with the measured average mobilityin the AMBA is developed. Secondly, a control law is added toregulate the transitions between confinement and normal life,according to five different levels. This work is presented in twoparts: this paper (Part 1) covers the model identification andvalidation, and the analysis of the impact on the model of themeasured average mobility; while Part 2 details the proposedcontrol methodology, which also considers the plasma treatmentfrom recovered patients. The latter focuses on the impact of theproposed model-based control methodology on the reduction ofthe ICU occupancy and number of deaths.