INVESTIGADORES
MONTEVERDE Laura Malena
congresos y reuniones científicas
Título:
The returns of longitudinal information on the elderly: a microsimulation model to estimate errors in cross-sectional estimates of disability-adjusted life expectancy
Autor/es:
PALLONI, ALBERTO; GUILLÉN, MONTSERRAT; MONTEVERDE, MALENA; AYUSO, MERCEDES; WHITE, ROBERT
Lugar:
Tours, France
Reunión:
Conferencia; XXV International Population Conference of the IUSSP; 2005
Institución organizadora:
International Union for the Scientific Study in Population
Resumen:
We evaluate the accuracy of alternative methods to assess life expectancy in disability
among elderly people. We pose a three-state model (healthy(H), disabled(D), dead(M))
with four transitions (H to D, D to M, H to M, and D to H) and use Monte Carlo
simulations to generate individual trajectories. The rates in the simulations reflect the
experience of the US population (HRS). We apply two methods to estimate life expectancy
in disability, each one of them using only partially observed information: (a) Sullivan?s
calculations; (b) a new procedure to estimate transition probabilities from observed
prevalence and overall mortality. We compare resulting estimates with the true values
embedded in simulations under conditions departing from the assumptions invoked by the
methods. We focus on violation to the assumptions of homogeneity of risks and no
recovery. We are also assessing robustness to lack of stationarity.