Economical uncertainty in the investment of an acetal plant from bioethanol

FUENTES MORA, MAUREN; AGUIRRE, PÍO; GONZÁLEZ SUÁREZ, ERENIO

Santa Fe, Argentina

Congreso; 3rd. MERCOSUR Congress on Process Systems Engineering and 1st. MERCOSUR Congress on Chemical Engineering (ENPROMER2001); 2001

FIQ-UNL, CERIDE, INTEC, INGAR

In this work, we present an economical uncertainty and risk assessment of a Project to produce Acetal (1-1 dietoxiethane) by an alco-chemical route, associated to an Agroindustrial Complex of Sugar Cane Production, Bioethanol, Torula Yeast, Acetaldehyde and other subproducts. Different alternatives for the material and energy integration of processes are taken into account in this analysis. The calculation of economical indicators is supported by real production data and by assumptions taken from expert criteria in the cases that required this. Traditional and unidimensional methods are used in the sensitivity analysis for acetal pricing and demand as an oxygenated additive for fuels. This treatment of risk is carried out with the aim of avoiding errors that jeopardize project decision and management. In this study case, in which there is large uncertainty as regards pricing, market, technology and furthermore environmental impact of new productions, the best decision criterion seems to be that of mathematical expectation calculated using subjective probabilities. By analyzing the alternatives identify the variables that cause the greatest variations in the expected project results. This study allowed making decisions during the systematic evaluation of the Project. *Trabajo aceptado y presentado oralmente, pero no publicado en el Libro de Actas por carencia económica.