INVESTIGADORES
COREMBERG Ariel Alberto
congresos y reuniones científicas
Título:
EL CRECIMIENTO DE LA ECONOMIA ARGENTINAMITOS Y REALIDADES DEL PBI, PRODUCTIVIDAD Y FUENTES DEL CRECIMIENTO
Autor/es:
ARIEL COREMBERG
Lugar:
Cordoba
Reunión:
Conferencia; Encuentro Económico-Académico 27 noviembre 2014Instituto de Economía y Finanzas (IEF) ?FCE-Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; 2014
Institución organizadora:
UNC
Resumen:
The main purpose
of this paper is to make an exhaustive revision of the Argentina National
Accounts' methodology in order to reproduce GDP series since 1993 and check
economic growth after political intervention of official statistics.
This work depicts
the results of estimating the GDP taking into account the same traditional
series and methodology that had been used for 25 years up to the intervention
of the official statistics in 2007.
This research
shows that our series reproduces Argentina?s GDP growth from 1993 up to 2006.
Since then, the difference between the official series and ARKLEMS reproducible
series accumulates an important positive bias.
The divergence
between our results and official figures is due to the withdrawal of the
traditional GDP measurement methodology in almost every sector of GDP. The paper
shows that these distortions are not based on deflating value added by industry
at current prices levels with manipulated price indices but mainly on
discretional intervention in every industry component of the GDP, not only
financial sector but also trade and manufacturing and the rest of services and
goods production sectors, with the objective to be to show a higher GDP growth.
Official
series present a GDP that grows at higher rates during the recent recovery
period (2003-2012) than in the previous one (1990-1998), and make Argentina to lead
the GDP performance of the region. But, this research demonstrated that ARKLEMS
reproducible GDP for recent growth episode has a similar performance to
previous positive cycle, 1990-1998. Tehcnical analyses based on typical NBER
cycle decomposition updated by Hausman et.al. (2005), shows that Argentina does
not have a sustainable growth acceleration.
The paper
showed that Argentina growth was important during recent growth episode, but
contrary to official figures, was not the growth championship of Latin America
region. Argentina has also one of the largest GDP volatilities in the whole
region, showing a very slow performance, lower (next to Mexico) than the region
and Brazil, when the comparison is realized between peaks of economic cycle
(1998-2012).
After checking
the results using the same traditional series and methods that were customary
in Argentina before 2007, Argentine official GDP could not evade the so-called
?Pandora Box? effects, caused by the political intervention of official
statistics.