Circulacao Atmosferica Associada a Eventos Extremos Frios No Paraguai e Sul do Brasil Utilizando Modelos do CMIP3 para um Cenario Climático Futuro

GABRIELA V. MÜLLER; KELEN MARTINS ANDRADE; CINTIA R.R. REPINALDO; IRACEMA F.A CAVALCANTI

Gramado

Congreso; XVII Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorología; 2012

In order to investigate the associated fields to cold air incursions in the eastern region of Paraguay and southern Brazil, reanalysis data from NCEP / NCAR are used, as well as the Hadley model and the GFDL model in the coupled ocean-atmosphere version. This analysis is realized with daily data from May to September of the period 1961-1990, which represents the present climate, and 2081-2100 as the future scenario (A2, CMIP3), always considering the five most extreme events. In the present climate, the reach of the 0°C line is overestimated by GFDL, and underestimated by Hadley. In future simulations, the Hadley model does not predict events of temperature lower than 0°C to Brazil anymore. In addition, the temperature range of 0°C is limited to higher latitudes for both models, suggesting a decrease in extreme cold events in South America.