Variability and changes of temperature, precipitation and snow in the Desaguadero-Salado-Chadileuvú-Curacó basin, Argentina

MÜLLER, GABRIELA.V; LOVINO, MIGUEL.A

Climate

MPDI

Año: 2023 vol. 11 p. 135 - 162

2225-1154

We analyze the variability and changes in mean temperature, annual precipitation and the snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Desaguadero-Salado-Chadileuvú-Curacó (DSCC) basin, observed in a recent period and their projected future values. The current climate and observed changes are studied based on the scarce observation records available in the region. Simulations from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) are used for the analysis of future climate projections. Mean annual temperature presents a major rise between 1 and 2 °C throughout the region in the 1961-2020 period. Annual precipitation has non-linear positive trends of varied importance. SWE decreased noticeably since 2010. Interannual variability also plays a key role, with dominant cycles between 2.8 and 4 years and between 7.5 and 10 years. The projected changes, computed as the difference between the 1985‒2014 and 2021‒2050 averages, reveal a rise in mean annual temperature in the entire basin, with an eastward magnitude increase from 1 to more than 2 °C. The annual precipitation is projected to increase up to 10% over most of the basin, except in the Andes, where it will decrease. The maximum annual SWE would also continue to decrease, in agreement with the trend observed in recent years.