Towards a leptospirosis early warning system in northeastern Argentina

LOTTO BATISTA, MARTÍN; REES, ELEANOR M.; GÓMEZ, ANDREA; LÓPEZ, SOLEDAD; CASTELL, STEFANIE; KUCHARSKI, ADAM J.; GHOZZI, STÉPHANE; MÜLLER, GABRIELA V.; LOWE, RACHEL

Journal of The Royal Society Interface

Royal Society

Año: 2023 vol. 20 p. 130 - 155

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease with a high burden in Latin America,including northeastern Argentina, where flooding events linked to El Niñoare associated with leptospirosis outbreaks. The aim of this study was toevaluate the value of using hydrometeorological indicators to predict leptospirosisoutbreaks in this region. We quantified the effects of El Niño,precipitation, and river height on leptospirosis risk in Santa Fe and EntreRíos provinces between 2009 and 2020, using a Bayesian modelling framework.Based on several goodness of fit statistics, we selected candidatemodels using a long-lead El Niño 3.4 index and shorter lead local climate variables.We then tested predictive performance to detect leptospirosis outbreaksusing a two-stage early warning approach. Three-month lagged Niño 3.4index and one-month lagged precipitation and river height were positivelyassociated with an increase in leptospirosis cases in both provinces. El Niñomodels correctly detected 89% of outbreaks, while short-lead local modelsgave similar detection rates with a lower number of false positives. Our resultsshowthat climatic events are strong drivers of leptospirosis incidence in northeasternArgentina. Therefore, a leptospirosis outbreak prediction tool drivenby hydrometeorological indicators could form part of an early warning andresponse system in the region.