Estimating 𝑹𝟎 For Dengue Emergence In Central Argentina Using Statistical Models

SAHIL CHINDAL; ESTALLO ELIZABET LILIA; MICHAEL A. ROBERT

Louisiana

Congreso; ICMA-VIII International Conference on Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Populations in Biological Systems; 2022

University of Louisiana at Lafayette Lafayette, Louisiana, USA

Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease and is prominent in tropical and subtropical regions of the world, but has recently been emerging in temperate areas. In Cordoba, a city in temperate central Argentina, there have been several dengue outbreaks in the last decade. Prior to 2009, dengue cases had not been reported in Cordoba. However, major outbreaks occurred in 2009, 2013, 2015, 2016, and 2020. The basic reproductive number, R0, is one measure to determine the severity of new outbreaks. In this project, we make use of various statistical methods and apply them to estimate R0 for dengue in Cordoba. Some of the statistical methods we utilized were Exponential Growth, White and Pagano Maximum Likelihood, EpiEstim Sequential Bayesian, and Wallinga and Tenunis Time-Dependent methods. We estimated R0 for the four major outbreaks between 2009 and 2016. All the statistical methods produced similar R0 predictions, which were comparable to estimates from other regions around the world. These estimates of R0 can be useful for planning mosquito control and other mitigation strategies in the future.