Analyzing ecoregions condition for the potential agricultural expansion in South America

ZARBA, L; GRAESSER J; GRAU, H RICARDO; AIDE TM; GASPARRI, IGNÁCIO

Berna

Congreso; 4th Open Science Meeting of the Global Land Programme; 2019

Global Land Programme

Cropland and pastureland are expanding throughout South America, often replacing natural ecosystems. Commodity production for export is one of the main drivers of this expansion, and indirectly inducing other land use changes. Previous studies found a segregated land use reorganization across the continent, suggesting that geography plays an important role in these dynamics. Understanding the local setting influences on larger scale agriculture dynamics would help us predict how different ecoregions respond to international drivers, and contextualize policy and planning efforts to maximize land use efficiency and conservation. In this study, we attempted to capture the globalized agribusiness viewpoint as a major agent of change. Specifically, we asked: Which ecoregions are more likely to undergo similar transformation dynamics and what type of agricultural activities may occur in them?To address these questions we created a data-driven clustering of ecoregions based on four simple geographic variables: (i) aptitude for mechanized agriculture, (ii) aptitude for rain-fed agriculture, (iii) distance to logistic/historic urban centers (cities), and (iv) distance connections to global markets (ports). The analysis grouped the ecoregions in eight clusters that showed correlation with current agriculture distribution and recent trends (pseudo R2=0.5) and reflect the conditions for agribusiness expansion. Our results highlighted groups of ecoregions with good aptitudes for agribusiness defined as "highly connected humid lowlands" (e.g. pampa region), "far humid lowlands? (e.g. moist chaco and chiquitania), and "accessible semiarid lowlands" (e.g. dry chaco), as opposed to least preferable groups defined as ?far montane drylands? (e.g. high andes and patagonia) or ?remote humid lowlands? (e.g. pantepui and southwest amazon). We propose this grouping as a guiding stratification of the ecoregions of South America to analyze land use processes, specially the cases related with the agribusiness expansion and its cascade effects.