Biomarkers of progression after HIV acute/early infection: nothing compares to CD4+ T-cell count?

O. SUED; M.M. GHERARDI; H. SALOMON; M.P. HOLGADO; C. TRIFONE; N. LAUFER; G. TURK; P.A. PURY; M.A. PANDO; M.I. FIGUEROA; J. FALIVENE; J. SALIDO; D. RABINOVICH; M. HORMANSTORFER; L.D. GIAVEDONNI; M.P. CARUSO; M.J. RUIZ; R. COLOCCINI; Y. GHIGLIONE

Paris

Congreso; IAS 2017 - 9th IAS Conference on HIV Science; 2017

International AIDS Society

Background: Progression of HIV infection is variable among individuals. Despite implementation of effective ART, definition of disease progression biomarkers is still fundamental. Apart from CD4+ T-cell count (CD4TC) and viral load (VL), several parameters have been individually proposed as biomarkers by our group and others. Here, we aimed to categorize their predictive potential using decision trees and analyze their possible implementation in the clinical setting. Methods: A total of seventy-five subjects were enrolled during acute/early HIV infection (< 6 months postinfection). CD4TC and VL determinations were performed at enrollment (baseline sample) and during 1 year. This study only included samples and data from subjects while off-treatment. Immune activation (HLA-DR and CD38 expression), HIV-specific immune response (ELISPOT) and HLA haplotype were determined in a subset of 41 individuals at baseline sample. Within this group, plasma levels of 39 cytokines were determined by Luminex in 27 individuals. Progression was defined as CD4TC decreasing below 350 cells/µl or experiencing AIDS-related B/C events within 12 months post-infection. Data was analyzed by machine learning and non-parametric methods and adjusted for multiple comparisons. Variable hierarchization was performed by Weka correlation based feature selection and J48 decision tree. Results: Plasma IL-10, IP-10, sIL-2Rα and TNF-α directly correlated with baseline VL while IL-2, TNF-α, FGF-2 and Mip-1β inversely correlated with CD4+ T-cell activation (p