Forecasting Elections in Latin America: An Overview

MARÍA CELESTE RATTO; ERIC BELANGER; MICHAEL LEWIS-BECK

Salamanca

Congreso; 73º Congreso Anual WAPOR y 9º Congreso de WAPOR América Latina; 2020

World Association for Public Opinion Research Latinoamérica (WAPOR Latam)

Every election years, politicians,political scientist, journalists, and ordinary citizens try to predict who willwin the elections. In recent years, the progress of survey research and thedevelopment of pollsters have gained great attention, although the expectedresults are not always achieved. To explain and predict elections requires atheory that accounts for changes over time in the electorate?s behavior. Furthermore,long series of data are also necessary to systematize voting behavior patternsand associate them with possible factors related to changes. Data and theorieswere organized under the field of study of forecasting elections. This fieldhas been a significant object of study in established democracies but has notdrawn as much attention yet in the context of developing democracies. The aimsof this paper is to enrich the field of forecasting elections, gathering andsystematizing the isolated advances on electoral forecasts that have been madeto explain the elections in Latin America. In this way we intend to contributein the organization of the field for this scarcely explored region, helping toencourage possible future works of this kind for Latin American elections.<!-- /* Font Definitions */@font-face{font-family:Cambria;panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;mso-font-charset:0;mso-generic-font-family:auto;mso-font-pitch:variable;mso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;} /* Style Definitions */p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal{mso-style-parent:"";margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:10.0pt;margin-left:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Cambria;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;}size:595.0pt 842.0pt;margin:70.85pt 3.0cm 70.85pt 3.0cm;mso-header-margin:35.4pt;mso-footer-margin:35.4pt;mso-paper-source:0;}div.Section1{page:Section1;}