Modeling past, present and future: Species-specific responses to climate changes in three shrub congeners from south American drylands

SOUTO C. P.; ZALAZAR L.,; M. TADEY; PREMOLI A. C.

Journal of Arid Environments

Academic Press

Año: 2024 vol. 221 p. 105139 - 105139

Drylands cover c. 40% of the land global surface and deliver significant ecosystemservices. These regions are the most sensitive, prone to suffer the effects of climateand land cover changes, so estimates on projected range shifts are crucial tocomplement traditional approaches to biodiversity conservation and sustainability.Shrubs of the Monte Desert dominate the largest temperate dryland in South America.Our goal is to assess the spatial distribution and niche overlap of three native shrubs(Larrea cuneifolia (LC), L. divaricata (LD), and L. nitida (LN)), under present climateconditions, to retrodict their potential past distribution, and anticipate their predictedrange under future climate scenarios. We used ecological niche modeling that wereprojected to the past (LGM and Mid Holocene) and future (2050 and 2070) under twoscenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and two model of global circulation. All specieshave high niche overlap (67-89%), but showed species-specific responses, highlightingthe need to develop mitigation measures particularly for LD and LN in the face ofclimate change and land use pressures. Global South deserts are being highlydegraded and information on future potential ranges of endemic species can supportthe development of sustainable conservation and management plans