Chagas' Disease: Modelling Transmission

64)GOURBIÈRE, S., E. DUMONTEIL, J. E. RABINOVICH, R. MINKOUE AND F. MENU.

Pest and Pathogen Control: Strategy, Tactics and Policy Models

John Wiley & Sons

Lugar: Chihister; Año: 1984; p. 58 - 72

The results suggest that satisfactory control can be obtained either by annual spraying or by household collection of the bugs or by a combination of house improvements. But it would appear that dramatically better control can be achieved by using the hymenopterous parasite. The effectiveness of biological control, however, is critically dependent on the assumptions made about the form of the attack by the parasitoid on the bug. / have here assumed a type IIIfunctional response but if in the field the attack is ofthe type 1/ kind, then control willnot be as effective. So far, our assumptions are based on limited laboratory experiments which do not clearly identify the precise form of the functional response that is operating. Moreover, as can be seen from the shallow intersection of the t\VO curves in Figure 5.6, the conclusions drawn from the model are highly sensitive to the numerical details. It is necessary now toundertake a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the model and to repeat the experiments on an extensive scale so as to discover the form of the response under normal field conditions. The potential of the biological control suggested by these simulations is so great as to warrant further careful investigation of the assumptions underlying this approach.