Global Climate Change Effects on Venezuela?s Vulnerability to Chagas Disease is Linked to the Geographic Distribution of Five Triatomine Species

SOLEDAD CECCARELLI; JORGE RABINOVICH

JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY

ENTOMOLOGICAL SOC AMER

Lugar: Lanham; Año: 2015 vol. 52 p. 1333 - 1343

0022-2585

We analyzed the possible effects of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution in Venezuela of five species of triatomines (Eratyrus mucronatus(Stal, 1859),Panstrongylusgeniculatus(Latreille, 1811),Rhodnius prolixus(Sta °l, 1859),Rhodnius robustus(Larrousse, 1927), andTriatoma maculata(Erichson, 1848)), vectors ofTrypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease. To obtain the future potential geographic distributions, expressed as climatic niche suitability, wemodeled the presences of these species using two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)future emission scenarios of global climate change (A1B and B1), the Global Climate model CSIROMark 3.0, and three periods of future projections (years 2020, 2060, and 2080). After estimating with theMaxEnt software the future climatic niche suitability for each species, scenario, and period of future projections, we estimated a series of indexes of Venezuela?s vulnerability at the county, state, and countrylevel, measured as the number of people exposed due to the changes in the geographical distribution ofthe five triatomine species analyzed. Despite that this is not a measure of the risk of Chagas disease transmission, we conclude that possible future effects of global climate change on the Venezuelan populationvulnerability show a slightly decreasing trend, even taking into account future population growth; we canexpect fewer locations in Venezuela where an average Venezuelan citizen would be exposed to triatomines in the next 50?70 yr.