The impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications in the force of infection.

MEDONE, P.; CECCARELLI, S.; PAUL PARHAM; ANDREINA FIGUERAS; JORGE RABINOVICH

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society London B

The Royal Society

Año: 2015 vol. 370

Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector20 borne disease in Latin America. The main vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae subfamily and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the impact of climatic projections for 2050 on the climatic niche on two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitable niches in areas that are currently at high to moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of T. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions