INVESTIGADORES
RABINOVICH Jorge Eduardo
artículos
Título:
A Model for the Transmission of Chagas Disease with Random Inputs
Autor/es:
DANIEL J. COFFIELD JR. ; KEN KUTTLER; XIANGGUI QU; MEIR SHILLOR; JORGE RABINOVICH; ANNA MARIA SPAGNUOLO ; ALEXANDRA ZETYE
Revista:
BIOMATH
Editorial:
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Referencias:
Año: 2014
Resumen:
In this work we study and simulate a model for the dynamics
of Chagas disease that includes randomness in some of the system coefficients.
The disease, caused by the parasite T. cruzi, affects 8-10 million humans throughout
rural areas in the Americas. A basic model for the disease dynamics, which
consists of four nonlinear differential equations for the populations of the vectors,
infected vectors, humans, and domestic animals was developed in Spagnuolo et
al., (2009). Here, the model is modified by using a logistic term with two
delays for vector population growth and extended to include random coefficients,
reflecting the uncertainty in the determination of their values. The existence
of the unique local solution for the model as a stochastic process is
established. Numerical simulations are performed to conduct sensitivity analysis
on seven of the model parameters. Variations in two of the model parameters
lead to significant changes in the number of infected humans and infected
domestic mammals, indicating that these parameters need to be accurately
obtained.