The panic contagion probability during an evacuation process

G. A. FRANK; CLAUDIO O. DORSO; F. E. CORNES

Vancouver

Congreso; Joint Statistical Meeting 2018; 2018

American Statistical Association

Panic spreads like a contagious disease among people in a crowd. Any individual closely exposed to a panic source may express his (her) feelings, alerting others of imminent danger. The more intense these feelings are, the more likely that a neighboring individual move to panic. Thus, a ?contagion probability? exists for the panic spreading. The contagion probability plays a major role in the overall evacuation process. We examined the evacuation dynamics in the context of the?Social Force Model?. Our investigation shows that two possible evacuation patterns may appear, according to the contagion probability level. Both patterns are in agreement with real life recordingsfrom crowded events. We were able to determine the probability threshold for the occurrence of each evacuation pattern. We further investigated how the panic spreading gradually stops if the source ofdanger ceases.