Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilisations

GRAMAJO, L.; LARES, M.; FUNES, J.G.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ASTROBIOLOGY

CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS

Lugar: Cambridge; Año: 2020 vol. 19 p. 393 - 405

1473-5504

In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts betweencivilisations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution ofintelligent life. We simply assume a network of causally connected nodes. These nodes refersomehow to intelligent agents with the capacity of receiving and emitting electromagnetic signals.Here we present a three-parametric statistical Monte Carlo model of the network in asimplified sketch of the Galaxy. Our goal, using Monte Carlo simulations, is to explore theparameter space and analyse the probabilities of causal contacts. We find that the odds to makea contact over decades of monitoring are low for most models, except for those of a galaxydensely populated with long-standing civilisations. We also find that the probability of causalcontacts increases with the lifetime of civilisations more significantly than with the number ofactive civilisations. We show that the maximum probability of making a contact occurs when acivilisation discovers the required communication technology.