Regional climate projections, precipitation changes and flooding: the connection between science and practi ce

CAMILLONI, INÉS

Sao Jose dos Campos

Workshop; IPCC Workshop of WG I on Regio nal Climate Projections and their Use in Impacts and Risk Analysis Studies; 2015

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

   Climatechange projections indicate alterations in precipitation regimes in terms ofintensity and frequency and an increase intemperature which may lead to runoff shortages or  excesses and consequent water availabilitychanges in the future in many regions. The impacts of climate change on water resources also include modificationsin the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts. Quantitative estimationof the hydrological effects of climate change particularly at basin level isessential for water managers and decision makers to formulate adaptationstrategies to cope with the negative impacts on hydrology. In some cases,developing projections of extremes may be necessary to investigate whetherinfrastructure will still provide an adequate level of protection in future orfor the design of new infrastructure. Consequently, design floods and designrainfalls shows should explicitly address climate change with adjustmentfactors to be applied to current design estimates and may depend on designreturn period and projection horizon.