Assessment of bias correction schemes of climate simulations for the application of a hydrological model in La Plata Basin

CAMILLONI, INÉS; SAURRAL, RAMIRO; MONTROULL, NATALIA

Muskegon

Workshop; NOAA/GLERL Workshop on Methods of Projecting Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change; 2012

The hydrological cycle of the La Plata Basin in South America is simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and forced with atmospheric data from different climate models to determine to what extent errors in temperature and precipitation fields impact the representation of the hydrology of the basin. The VIC model is also used to simulate river discharges downstream of the two largest wetlands within the basin: Iberá and Pantanal. The skill assessment of the hydrological simulations is performed in terms of simulated runoff at different closing points. All climate models considered present deficiencies in simulating the regional climatology of southeastern South America, and this leads to a very poor representation of the hydrological cycle of the main rivers across the basin and of the rivers at the outlet of the wetlands. Different unbiasing schemes are then proposed to correct the climate models outputs before forcing the hydrological model, and comparisons between biased and unbiased simulations are also performed. Results indicate that all schemes reduce biases in the water cycle simulations.