Testing the importance of climate in controlling the distribution of savannas in South Africa vs. Argentina.

MONCRIEFF, G.; BOND, W.J.; DÍAZ, S. M.; JAUREGUIBERRY, P.; ENRICO, L.

Skukuza, Kruger National Park, SA

Encuentro; 9th Annual Savanna Science Networking Meeting.; 2011

South African National Parks

It is widely believed that the distribution of savannas, along with other major biomes of the world, is primarily determined by climate. We tested the importance of climate in determining savanna distribution by developing a climate envelope model for South African savannas. We then used the model to predict where savannas should occur in northern Argentina, which shares a similar semi-arid to mesic climate and latitudinal range to South Africa. Contrary to model predictions, most of the vegetation predicted to be savanna in Argentina is dry deciduous ?forest? (?chaco?).  We explore other factors that may explain the striking non-convergence of sub-tropical vegetation on the two continents. The poor performance of climate in predicting spatial patterns of savannas in a different region undermines confidence in simple climate-based predictions of the future distribution of South African savannas under global change.