Climate change and its relationship with non-melanoma skin cancers

IPIÑA, ADRIANA; DELLA CECA, LARA SOFÍA; PIACENTINI, RUBÉN D.

Photochemical and Photobiological Sciences

ROYAL SOC CHEMISTRY

Año: 2018 p. 1913 - 1917

1474-905X

Climate change is affecting both the environment and the human behaviour. One significant impact is relatedto health, as detailed in the IPCC 2014 report. In the present work, and as a contribution to thiscommemorative special issue to Prof Dr Jan van der Leun, we present results of the squamous (SCC) and basalcellcarcinoma (BCC) incidence change in relation to the ambient temperature increase. This increase isproduced by the global warming, mainly induced by anthropogenic atmospheric emissions of greenhousegases. We have broadened a previous work made by van der Leun et al. (PPS, 2008, 7, 730-733), by analysingthe effective carcinogenicity of UV dose, for the period 2000-2200 and four climate change scenarios (calledRCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The corresponding percentage increases of the incidence of SCC for2100 are: 5.8, 10.4, 13.8 and 21.4 %, and for 2200: 4.3, 12.1, 19.0 and 40.5 %. In a similar way, the percentageincreases of the incidence of BCC for 2100 are: 2.8, 4.9, 6.5 and 9.9 % and for 2200: 2.0, 5.8, 8.9 and 18.2 %.We report the SCC and BCC percentage effective incidence results as a function of time, for the whole 21stcentury and we extended the analysis to the 22nd century, since people possibly affected (like the Z and Tgenerations, born at the beginning of this century) will have a life expectancy extending up to the finaldecades of the present century and even to the first ones of the next century.