Crop diversification as an adaptation strategy to climate change impact on ecosystem services provided by Pampean agroecosystems (Argentina)

FERRARO, D.O.; ROSITANO, F.; PIÑEIRO, G.

Sao Paulo

Taller; São Paulo School of Advanced Science on Climate Change: Scientific basis, adaptation, vulnerability and mitigation​; 2017

Inter-American Institute for Climate Change Research (IAI)

Causal relationships between climate change and agroecosystem changes are poorly understood as there are no studies that have focused on them. Assessing climate change impact on ecosystem services provision is essential because they represent the output of a chain of interactions present in agroecosystems. In recent years, several adaptation strategies to climate change have been highlighted and crop diversification could be considered one of them; particularly, crop rotations. Then, how would ecosystems, and ecosystem services they provide, respond to different crop rotations? The main objective of this research consists on assessing the provision level of a set of ecosystem services as a consequence of climate change impact in the Pampa region (Argentina). First, regional climate change scenarios have been recorded in order to obtain a data set for three time periods: 2025-2030, 2035-2040, and 2045-2050. This climatic data (i.e. temperature and rainfall) has been used as input variables for model simulation. This has allowed us to estimate climate change impact on yield of four crops (wheat, maize, soybean and sunflower) in different Pampean localities. Second, productive and environmental data has been included into quantitative models representing four ecosystem services provided by Pampean agroecosystems: 1) soil C balance, 2) soil N balance, 3) groundwater contamination control, and 4) N2O emission control. Their provision level has been compared among time periods (including current provision level) and crops. Finally, crop rotations influence on ecosystem services provision will be assessed. In order to do this, a set of crop rotations will be identified and compared in different environmental and productive simulated scenarios. Then, these crop rotations will be included into ecosystem services quantitative models. Results will be a valuable contribution to the assessment of Pampean agroecosystems sustainability, as well as the basis for planning sustainable strategies to mitigate climate change on ecosystem services provision.