Regional projections over Southern South America: Mean seasonal changes of temperature and precipitation for 2020´s and 2050´s using the pattern scaling technique.

CABRÉ MARÍA FERNANDA,; SOLMAN SILVINA ALICIA; NÚÑEZ MARIO

Buenos Aires, Argentina

Workshop; CLARIS-LPB Kick-off Meeting; 2008

CIMA-UBA - Proyecto CLARIS LPB

Dynamical downscaling of global climate simulations is the most adequate tool to generate regional projections of climate change. This technique involves at least a present climate simulation and a simulation of a future scenario, usually at the end of the twenty first century. However, regional projections for a variety of scenarios and periods, the 2020s or the 2050s, are often required by the impact community. The pattern scaling technique is used to estimate information on climate change for periods and scenarios not simulated by the regional model. The objective of this study is to evaluate the assumptions and limitations of the pattern scaling technique and  use this methodology to estimate regional patterns of mean seasonal changes of temperature and precipitation for the 2020´s and the 2050´s for SRES A2 and SRES B2. The assumption to be tested is related to the linearity between changes in the global mean temperature and changes in regional scale precipitation and temperature at seasonal time scale.