Labour market flows in Argentina. An application of censored quantile regression for duration data

BECCARIA, LUIS; MAURIZIO, ROXANA

Portoroz

Congreso; IARIW 30th General Conference; 2008

International Association for Research in Income and Wealth

Argentina constitutes an interesting case to be analyzed given that during the nineties itreached high growth rates and a more stable macroeconomic environment but alsowitnessed significant rises in unemployment, inequality and poverty. Moreover,notwithstanding the stabilization of the economy and the reduction of inflation, labourand income instability grew during the decade. Open unemployment reachedunprecedented high levels while the incidence of precarious employment also grew.Both phenomena usually led to higher occupational instability, as short-term jobs aretypical among those non-registered wage earners. Occupational turnover would alsohave been stimulated by modifications introduced to labour regulations as the new typesof fixed-term -lower cost- contracts and the trial period.This document analyses the characteristics of labour mobility in Greater Buenos Aires(Argentina) from 1991 to 2002. The main purpose is to study the flows fromemployment and unemployment identifying those groups of people with the largeroccupational turnover and the factors associated to labour instability. In particular, thepaper investigates the influence of tenure and personal and occupational attributes, aswell as macro variables –in particular, the effect of business cycle–, on the employmentand unemployment duration. The analysis is based on censored quantile regression forduration data. This paper is the first attempt to use this econometric technique for labourdynamic in Argentina.