Routine Forecasting and Monitoring System for Agricultural and Hydrological Applications on La Plata Basin

OMAR V. MÜLLER; ERNESTO H. BERBERY

Congreso; Congreso de Hidrollanuras; 2014

La Plata Basin is usually affected by extreme events. Nevertheless, there is not enough climate information available to assist operationaldecisions at real-time. An operational system based on simulations of the Weather and Research Forecasting Model was developed with the objective of offering information as support for agriculture, hydrology and risk management. Every day simulations are carried out over South America, and a nested domain covering La Plata Basin. The forecasts module shows the expected evolution of each variable in the next seven days. The system has also a monitoring module that shows the behavior of hydrometeorological variables for the last 90 days. This set of tools allows easily to characterize the last months and what can be expected for the next days in order to plan activities, and reduce impacts of  anomalous conditions. The verification of the forecast skill shows an average accuracy of about 70% for rainy days, and 85% of correlation with observed temperatures. Currently, the system outputs are used as input of an early warning system for flows and also, to support extended forecasts. In both cases the users value positively the utility of the system and recognize it as a key tool for their applications.