Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies

LUCAS D. VALDEZ; HENIO H. A. REGO; HARRY E. STANLEY; LIDIA A. BRAUNSTEIN

Foz do Iguazu

Encuentro; XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Física da Matéria Condensada; 2015

The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa, causing thousands of deaths. When developing strategies to slow or halt the epidemic, mathematical models that reproduce the spread of this virus are essential for understanding which variables are relevant. We study the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia by using a model in which people travel from one county to another in order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are in good agreement with World Health Organization data. We also find that reducing mobility delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks, and as a consequence, is insufficient to contain the epidemic. Finally we study the effect of a strategy focused on increasing safe burials and hospitalization under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August, which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been reduced by three months and the total number of infected individuals reduced by 80%, when compared to scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will cease by mid-spring 2015.