Aedes aegypti: formulation and application to a city with temperate climate

MARCELO JAVIER OTERO; HERNÁN GUSTAVO SOLARI; NICOLÁS SCHWEIGMANN

San Carlos de Bariloche

Workshop; IX Latin American Workshop on Non-linear Phenomena.; 2005

Instituto Balseiro

Aedes aegypti is the main vector for dengue and urban yellow fever. It is extended around the world not only in the tropical regions but also beyond them, reaching temperate climates. Because of its importance as a vector of deadly diseases, the significance of its distribution in urban areas and the possibility of breeding in laboratory facilities, Aedes aegypti is one of the best-known mosquitos. In this work the biology of Aedes aegypti is incorporated into the framework of a stochastic population dynamics model able to describe the seasonal changes of the mosquito populations and to handle seasonal and total extinction as well as endemic situations.The model incorporates explicitly the dependence with temperature and the ecological parameters of the model are tuned to the present populations of Aedes aegypti in Buenos Aires city, which is at the border of the present days geographical distribution in America. Temperature thresholds for the mosquito survival are computed as a function of average yearly temperature and seasonal variation as well as breeding site availability. We show that these thresholds constitute a realistic criterion compatible with historical and present days distribution of {em Aedes aegypti} in south America.In a second instance we incorporated explicity the spatial extension in order to describe the spatial dynamics and mosquito dispersal, and we compared our model results with published experimental and observational studies performed in Argentina and other  countries.