A Descriptive-Predictive Model of CME Propagation based on Multi-Instrument Data

H. CREMADES; F. A. IGLESIAS; O. C. ST. CYR; M. L. KAISER; HONG XIE; QUIRK, C A

San Francisco, CA

Congreso; American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011; 2011

American Geophysical Union

The space weather field has thriven in the past decades, mainly given the proliferation of space missions devoted to study the Sun and its relations to Earth. In addition, the high dependence on technology developed by society demands that a solar event, its time of arrival at Earth, and its degree of geoeffectiveness can be promptly forecasted. The accurate prediction of a CME-driven shock arrival time at Earth is therefore challenging and crucial, so as to take emergency measures when required. In this direction, we have studied 90 Earth-directed events in different stages of their propagation from Sun to Earth. A descriptive model was derived from CME height-time information from SOHO/LASCO coronagraph data, interplanetary shock approximate locations derived from Type II radio emissions detected by Wind/WAVES, and shock time of arrival at L1 as seen in-situ by the ACE and/or Wind spacecraft. The descriptive model provided a general overview of CME-driven shocks kinematics, allowing the determination of typical propagation profiles and constrains on the main parameters. On the basis of these, a predictive model was formulated, which relies on CME and low-frequency type II radio emissions. We discuss results on CME-radio emission associations, characteristics of the propagation in the interplanetary medium, and the success of the predictive model to forecast the arrival times of shocks at Earth.