Performance assesment of precipitation forecasts using a distributed hydrological model

LÓPEZ, SEBASTIÁN; DILLON, MARIA EUGENIA; MALDONADO, PAULA; AMEMIYA, ARATA; RUIZ, JUAN JOSÉ; GARCÍA SKABAR, YANINA; OTSUKA, SHIGENORI; KAKINUMA, DAIKI; AIDA, KENTARO; USHIYAMA, TOMOKI; CANCELADA, MAITE; KITAHARA, DAICHI; RUGNA, MARTIN; RE, MARIANO; GARCÍA, CARLOS MARCELO; SAULO, A. CELESTE; MIYOSHI, TAKEMASA

Sapporo

Workshop; The 6th International workshop on nonhydrostatic models; 2023

Urban floods and intense precipitation are highly destructive natural disasters. In the context ofclimate change, it is imperative to undertake novel measures for mitigating their impact on vulnerablecommunities. The PREVENIR initiative has started in 2022, with the objective of developing an earlywarning system centered on the impacts caused by heavy rainfall and urban floods. It focuses on twovulnerable urban basins in Argentina: The Sarandí-Santo Domingo creek basin in Buenos AiresProvince's plains, and the Suquía River Basin in Córdoba Province's mountainous region.In this study, the performance of different numerical weather prediction strategies was assessed byemploying forecasted precipitation of a case study rainfall event, as input for the hydrological modelof the Suquía river basin. High resolution (2 km) forecasts were performed using the nonhydrostaticmodels Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Scalable Computing for Advanced Library andEnvironment (SCALE), with different initial and boundary conditions: the NCEP GFS (~25 km), theoperational WRF from the National Weather Service from Argentina (4 km) and a regional SCALE(4 km). The 10-minutes forecasted precipitation from these experiments were used to force a spatiallydistributed hydrological model using RRI-tool, comparing the forecasted hydrographs with theobserved ones.