Modelling interventions during a dengue outbreak

DANIEL BARMAK; CLAUDIO O. DORSO; MARCELO OTERO; HERNÁN SOLARI

EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION.

CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS

Lugar: Cambridge; Año: 2014 vol. 142 p. 545 - 561

0950-2688

We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that considersthe co-evolution of the spatial dynamics of the vectors (Aedes aegypti) and hosts (humanpopulation), allowing the simulation of control strategies adapted to the actual evolution ofan epidemic outbreak. We observed that imposing restrictions on the movement of infectedhumans is not a highly effective strategy. In contrast, isolating infected individuals with highlevels of compliance by the human population is efficient even when implemented with delays during an ongoing outbreak. We also studied insecticide-spraying strategies assuming different (hypothetical) efficiencies. We observed that highly efficient fumigation strategies seem to be effective during an outbreak. Nevertheless, taking into account the controversial results on the use of spraying as a single control strategy, we suggest that carrying out combined strategies of fumigation and isolation during an epidemic outbreak should account for a suitable strategy for the attenuation of epidemic outbreaks.