Dengue transmission risk maps of Argentina.

ANIBAL EDUARDO CARBAJO; NICOLAS SCHWEIGMANN,; SUSANA CURTO,; ALICIA DE GARIN,; RUBEN BEJARAN,

TROPICAL MEDICINE AND INTERNATIONAL HEALTH

Blackwell Publishing

Año: 2001 vol. 6 p. 170 - 183

1360-2276

Dengue is an emerging disease that has become important in Argentina because of its vector´s presence (Aedes aegypti) and its endemicity in neighbouring countries. Thematic maps were built for Argentina  considering four main factors: population susceptibility to dengue virus infection (population density); entrance of the virus from endemic countries (main roads and airports); conditions for the vector (urbanization, altitude, minimum, maximum and mean daily temperatures) and virus extrinsic incubation period (EIP) completion in the mosquito before its death. EIP duration was modelled with a temperature-dependent function and considering life expectancies of 10, 15 and 20 days for the adult mosquito. The results show maximum risk of dengue transmission in the northern and north-eastern part of the country year-round and in the centre during the summer. Although life expectancy of the adult mosquito has a considerable in¯uence on EIP completion, the north-east to south-west decreasing gradient is maintained. Assuming 20-day life expectancy, the EIP would be completed in almost any region of the country; whereas with 15-day life expectancy it would be limited to vector distribution area, and at 10 days it would be restricted to the northern extreme of the country.